Harris’ hunt for a VP may come down to location, location, location

Just days into her nascent 2024 presidential campaign, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is already facing her first big decision: picking a running mate.  

The vice presidential search process – which typically involves a monthslong vetting process of several candidates – is now happening in a fraction of that time. Democrats reportedly are planning to nominate their ticket as soon as Aug. 7, with a virtual roll call vote before the party’s convention in Chicago later that month.

So far, speculation as to whom Ms. Harris may ask to join the ticket has largely focused on a small group of popular governors and senators from key battleground states. That would be a departure from recent history, in which campaigns have largely discounted vice presidential candidates’ ability to “deliver” a state and the picks have often been driven by other factors, like an impressive résumé or personal chemistry. The Harris campaign also appears to be taking demographic and ideological considerations into account – most of the candidates reportedly under consideration are moderate white men.

Above all, the priority for the campaign will be picking a vice president who’s ready for prime time and whom America could envision as a plausible president. 

Just days into her nascent 2024 presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is already facing her first big decision: picking a running mate.  

The vice-presidential search process – which typically involves a months-long vetting of several candidates – is now happening in a fraction of that time. Democrats reportedly are planning to nominate their ticket as soon as August 7, with a virtual roll call vote before the party’s convention in Chicago later that month.

So far, speculation as to whom Ms. Harris may ask to join the ticket has largely focused on a small group of popular governors and senators from key battleground states. That would be a departure from recent history, in which campaigns have largely discounted vice-presidential candidates’ ability to “deliver” a state, and the picks have often been driven by other factors, like an impressive résumé or personal chemistry.

“There are very few examples over the last 60-something years where a presidential candidate has chosen a running mate to carry their home state,” says Joel Goldstein, a professor at Saint Louis University Law School and expert on the vice presidency. But in an election that could come down to a handful of voters in a handful of states, as occurred in the two most recent presidential cycles, the calculus changes. “If you find [a good candidate] in one of those states, then maybe [Harris] is more likely to choose them than would have been the case in previous cycles, when the battlefield was larger.”

The Harris campaign also appears to be taking demographic and ideological considerations into account. Most of the candidates who have reportedly been asked to submit vetting documents are moderate, middle-aged white men who might appeal to a different set of voters than a Black, female politician from California. It’s the same kind of calculation President Joe Biden made, in reverse, when he tapped Ms. Harris in 2020. Above all, the campaign’s priority will be picking a vice president who’s ready for primetime and whom America could envision as a plausible president. 

While it’s possible a dark-horse candidate could wind up getting the nod, among those reportedly under consideration, three high-profile, swing-state officials are generating the most buzz. 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Arguably no state is more important for Democrats in November than Pennsylvania, which Mr. Biden won by less than two percentage points in 2020. Two years later, then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the governorship by almost 15 points – albeit against a weak Republican candidate – setting a record for the most votes ever received by a gubernatorial candidate in the Keystone State. One poll found Mr. Shapiro to have the highest approval rating among his four immediate predecessors at the one-year mark, with almost half of all voters saying he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job. Another poll found that 59% of Pennsylvanians – including 36% of Republicans – approved of Mr. Shapiro’s first year in office.